Context:
Recently, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a landmark mutual defence pact, formalising decades of informal military cooperation. The move reflects shifts in West Asia’s security dynamics, regional uncertainty, and evolving alliances amid U.S. strategic recalibration and conflicts such as the Gaza war.
Terms of the Agreement
- Collective Defence:
The official statement from Riyadh and Islamabad declares that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
This principle ensures mutual protection and obligates both nations to respond to threats targeting either side. - Permanent Coordination Mechanisms:
The pact outlines the establishment of permanent structures such as:- A joint military committee
- Intelligence-sharing arrangements
- Expanded training programmes
Pakistan has maintained military personnel in Saudi Arabia for decades, but these mechanisms formalise the cooperation.
- From Informal to Formal:
Decades of informal military collaboration are now codified into a formal treaty, clarifying responsibilities and enhancing strategic alignment. - Stance on Nuclear Capabilities:
Saudi Arabia has reportedly provided financial support to Pakistan’s nuclear programme, but the agreement does not confirm whether Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities extend to Saudi defence. - Symbolic Significance:
The pact demonstrates Saudi Arabia’s intent to strengthen security beyond existing ties, giving Pakistan a larger operational role in the Persian Gulf.
Reasons for Signing Now
- U.S. Inaction:
- Qatar, a U.S.-protected ally, faced Israeli attacks without significant U.S. intervention.
- In 2019, Iran-backed attacks on Saudi oil installations drew limited U.S. response.
Riyadh concluded that it cannot rely solely on U.S. security guarantees.
- U.S. Strategic Shift:
The U.S. is pivoting to East Asia, reducing involvement in West Asian conflicts. - Gaza War Impact:
The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent response in Gaza disrupted Saudi plans to normalise ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, heightening Gulf insecurity. - Threat from Houthi Rebels:
- Houthis in Yemen, controlling nearly half of the country including Sanaa, continue to launch missile and drone strikes on Saudi facilities and shipping.
- The ceasefire is tenuous, and Houthis remain a significant regional security challenge.
- Mutual Interests:
- Saudi Arabia: Experienced in regional security and military operations.
- Pakistan: Seeks financial support to stabilise its economy.
West Asia Security Landscape
- Pre-October 2023 U.S. Strategy:
Focused on strengthening Israel-Gulf ties. - Saudi Arabia’s Demand Post-October 7:
Riyadh conditions Israel normalisation on creation of a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders, which Israel rejects. - Diversifying Alliances:
By turning to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia signals to both Washington and Tel Aviv that it is broadening its security partnerships. - Potential Risks:
- For Pakistan: May get entangled in Saudi-Iran rivalry or Yemen conflict.
- For Saudi Arabia: Could face South Asian instability, especially if India-Pakistan tensions escalate.
- The pact does not eliminate vulnerabilities such as Iranian missile strikes or Houthi drones, but acts as a strategic hedge amid U.S. uncertainty.
India’s Perspective
- Strategic Complications:
The pact introduces multiple challenges for India:- India has invested heavily in Saudi energy, trade, and counter-terrorism cooperation.
- Around 2.6 million Indian expatriates reside in Saudi Arabia.
- Balancing with Israel:
India has a pro-Israel tilt in West Asia. The pact signals that Saudi Arabia may pursue a pro-Pakistan tilt, reducing sensitivity to India’s concerns. - Impact on Indian Influence:
If Pakistan establishes itself as a credible Gulf security provider, India’s regional influence may diminish.
Conclusion and Way Forward for India
- Structural Shift in West Asia:
U.S. dominance is no longer assured, and regional powers are reconfiguring security arrangements. - India’s Strategy:
- Maintain balanced relations with Saudi Arabia.
- Continue engagement with other Gulf states and Iran.
- Safeguard energy security, diaspora interests, and regional stability.
- Key Takeaway:
India’s interests are best served by regional balance and stability, even as alliances in the Gulf diversify and Pakistan’s role grows.
Source : The Hindu
